As the 2025 Emmy Awards season heats up, Apple TV+’s satirical workplace comedy The Studio is currently leading the race for Outstanding Comedy Series. However, with strong contenders returning to the fray and the notoriously unpredictable nature of Emmy voting, the question remains: can it hold its lead through to the finish?
Since its debut, The Studio has captivated voters and critics alike with its razor-sharp writing and clever critique of the entertainment industry itself—elements that often appeal directly to the Television Academy. Yet as history shows, the comedy category frequently favors not just smart storytelling, but buzzy, high-profile hits that resonate with a broader audience.
Among those challengers is FX’s The Bear, which has gained momentum with its critically acclaimed second season, and HBO Max’s Hacks, which continues to showcase top-tier performances and sophisticated humor. Both returning shows carry significant industry goodwill and are likely to make a strong showing as Emmy voting nears.
ABC’s Abbott Elementary remains a standout network comedy and continues to garner critical praise. However, following several successful seasons, the show may be approaching the point of audience fatigue, a trend that sometimes signals a plateau in awards momentum.
Hulu’s Only Murders in the Building retains its status as a prestige comedy with a beloved cast and clever plotting, but it risks becoming one of those perennial nominees that generate more recognition than passion among voters.
Another Apple TV+ entry, Shrinking, is seen by many as the platform’s most emotionally resonant comedy. Despite this, it has yet to capture the cultural zeitgeist in the same way as The Studio, which may limit its ability to break through.
FX’s What We Do in the Shadows enters its final season with a strong fanbase and critical acclaim, but its genre trappings—a mix of mockumentary and supernatural comedy—could hinder its ascent in a category that traditionally leans toward broader appeal.
Netflix’s Nobody Wants This emerges as the streamer’s most viable contender, though perhaps the true dark horse in the race is Four Seasons. While currently just outside the presumed eligibility window, its growing buzz and widespread emotional appeal could give it an edge if voters seek familiarity and comfort over innovation.
As the official Emmy eligibility deadline of May 31 approaches, the field will solidify. Nomination voting will take place from June 12 to June 23, with the final nominations announced on July 15.
These predictions, part of Variety’s comprehensive awards coverage, are curated weekly by senior awards editor Clayton Davis and reflect current standings—not personal preferences. As with any awards race, narratives can shift rapidly, influenced by late-season campaigns, critical reevaluations, and shifting voter sentiment.
For more insights and regularly updated forecasts across all major awards—including the Oscars, Grammys, and Tonys—visit Variety’s dedicated awards prediction hub.
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